CES has tracked the end-of-life market for lithium-ion batteries for almost a decade. During this time we have refined our analysis and systematically built the data streams — battery volumes, lifecycle research, material prices, recycling costs, used battery prices, and reuse market dynamics — that together provide the most comprehensive picture of this market available anywhere.

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We are now taking the next step: launching forecast data on the future value of batteries during and after their use.

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Why this matters now

Every company placing lithium-ion batteries above 2 kWh on the European market is now financially responsible for their end-of-life management. PROs need to set fees. Battery producers need to budget for obligations that will materialise in 5 to 15 years. Recyclers need to understand future feedstock economics. Reuse companies need to know whether the market can absorb what is becoming available.

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All of these decisions depend on the same question: what will these batteries actually be worth when they reach end of life?

Until now, there has been no systematic, data-driven answer. The industry has relied on current recycling gate fees, spot material prices, and assumptions. The CES Used Battery Value Forecast changes this.

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What the forecast enables

For OEMs and battery producers – Direct guidance on the book value of batteries and their potential resale value — enabling asset optimisation and the design of upgrade offers, rental models, and residual value strategies. Clarity on whether closed-loop strategies make economic sense or whether value is better captured through other routes, including the interaction with recycled content requirements in Europe.

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For producer responsibility organisations – A transparent, data-driven basis for fee-setting and capital allocation — enabling PROs and producers to work together toward strategies that reflect actual end-of-life economics rather than today's spot prices.

For the recycling and reuse industries Greater transparency on why batteries are destined for one route or another, and how this changes over time — supporting better decisions on capacity investment, feedstock pricing, partnerships, and the business case for moving upstream into reuse.

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For investors – Forward-looking data to assess recycler profitability, margin sustainability, and feedstock risk — distinguishing between business models that are structurally advantaged and those exposed to chemistry shifts, geographic leakage, or competitive dynamics.

For industrial battery companies Companies deploying energy storage systems, mining vehicles, forklifts, heavy electric vehicles, and maritime batteries face producer responsibility obligations that are new, growing, and largely uncharted. The Used Battery Value Forecast provides the cost basis they need.

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How the forecast is built

The CES Used Battery Value Forecast draws on several interlocking data streams, each maintained and updated continuously:

Observed used battery prices What do batteries trade at today when removed from their applications, and in what context? CES tracks nearly 5,000 price observations across chemistries, vehicle models, regions, and sales channels — the largest dataset of its kind.

The recycling floor value We consider the recycling market to be the value floor for batteries. Using long-term material price data combined with recovery rates, processing costs, and recycler margin requirements, we calculate what a recycler can pay — or must charge — for each battery chemistry. This draws on our database of nearly 1,000 recycling facilities globally, covering technology, capacity, cost structure, and end-product capabilities. Crucially, this accounts not only for the value of recovered materials but also for the full cost of pre-processing and the competitive dynamics that determine whether that value reaches the battery owner.

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Reuse and repurposing markets The alternative to recycling — and often the higher-value pathway. CES draws on years of analysis of the reuse market, combined with new battery cost modelling that defines the competitive ceiling for reused batteries, and volume data that determines how many batteries are available for reuse in a given market. The most important input is our battery lifetime data, which tells us how old batteries typically are when they reach end of life — and therefore how many cycles remain and what competition they face from newer batteries entering the secondary market.

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Export and trade flows Batteries do not stay where they are sold. CES tracks how applications move across borders with their batteries inside, determining which batteries are available for domestic end-of-life management and which leave the jurisdiction entirely. This is not a marginal adjustment — in many markets, trade flows fundamentally reshape the volume and timing of available feedstock.

Battery lifecycle data Proprietary research covering more than 40 battery and application segments, defining how long batteries remain in their first use and through which routes they exit — warranty events, accidents, end of application life, trade, and decommissioning. This is the foundation on which all CES volume and value forecasts are built.

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Granularity

The data we produce is, in many cases, extremely granular. For EVs, the underlying data is collected at vehicle model level — enabling us to forecast the future value not only of a battery chemistry or type, but of the specific battery packs in specific vehicles.

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Combined with sales and registration data by geography, this enables cohort-level forecasting: the total future value of all batteries of a specific type, placed on a specific market, in a specific year. This is the level of detail required for producer responsibility planning, portfolio-level residual value assessment, and strategic feedstock analysis.

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Verified in practice

Over recent months, CES has worked with battery producers in Europe — in both electric vehicles and energy storage — to verify the forecast methodology and to guide decisions on producer responsibility strategies, book value assessment, and end-of-life cost planning. We are now making this capability available to the broader market.

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How it is available

On CES Online: Forecasts by chemistry and application type are being published on CES Online, available to all subscribers. These provide reference values for planning, benchmarking, and strategic discussions.​ Explore CES Online 

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Through bespoke advisory: For company-specific analysis — including cohort-level forecasting for individual battery portfolios, producer responsibility cost modelling, and residual value assessment — CES works directly with clients.​ Learn more about our advisory services